AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher higher this morning. USDA in DC is closed today in observation of Veterans Day, as are many banks. USDA indicates total export commitments are now 16.19% larger than last year (per the weekly report) and 36.21% of the updated USDA export projection vs. the 39% normal pace. The expected national average price for corn was bumped up 10 cents with a $3.60 mid-point in the WASDE report. Gulf basis bids for barges this morning are UNCH at 43 over. In the week ending November 6, spec fund money managers added 12,360 contracts to their net long position in corn futures and options. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees Argentina’s 2018/19 corn crop at 35.9% planted on November 7, vs. the 37.5% average.

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.71, up 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.82, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.96 3/4, up 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 4 cents lower at midday. Front month soy meal is up 30 cents/ton, with soy oil 8 points higher. CFTC data showed money managers in soybean futures and options trimming their net short position by 26,227 contracts for the week of 11/6 at -45,078 contracts. Export commitments for soybeans are 42.2% of the new WASDE forecast compared to the 5-year average of 64% for this week. They are now 30.6% lower than this time last year. USDA is still expecting some back loading of exports in the current marketing year. The USDA weekly Export Inspections report is delayed until Tuesday. AgRural estimates that Brazil’s 18/19 soybean crop is 71% planted, compared to the normal pace of 57%. Safras estimates planting at 69% complete, so there are some small differences between surveys.

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, down 4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.83, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.96 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.09 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal is at $306.00, up $0.40

Dec 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.70, up $0.08

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are 12 to 15 cents higher in the Chicago SRW this morning. Some traders cite problems with the French crop, but this appears to be primarily a technical correction. The other two markets are less enthusiastic but still up 6 to 8 cents. Trade ideas for winter wheat planting in Tuesday’s NASS report are running around 90%. The average pace would be 93%. Wheat exports are improving and are now only 15.5% lower than this week in 2017. Compared to the USDA export projection, they are 50% complete, vs. the typical 68% pace and 73% last year. CFTC indicated specs in Chicago wheat futures and options trimmed their net short position by 3,574 contracts in the week of 11/6 to -41,143 contracts.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.18 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.94 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81 1/4, up 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures are mostly 12 to 25 cents lower, although nearby December is 17 higher as this is written. Feeder cattle futures are 12 to 52 cents lower after an early rally burned out. The CME feeder cattle index was down 60 cents on November 8 at $151.63. Wholesale boxed beef prices are being reported by the Des Moines office and are 46 cents higher for the Choice boxes this morning at $215.66. The average Select 600-900# cutout value is up $1.38 at $200.10. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 640,000 head last week. That was 3,000 below the previous week and 16,000 head larger than the same day last year. Cash cattle traded at mostly $114 to $114.25 last week.

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.750, up $0.175,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $117.875, up $0.075,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $120.125, down $0.125,

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.675, down $0.325

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.050, up $0.250

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.125, down $0.050

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean Hog futures are sharply higher this morning, up $.47 to $2.12 with everything from Feb 2019 out through August in triple digit territory. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 61 cents from the previous day @ $62.77 on November 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is up $1.94 FOB Omaha this morning, at $70.64. The frequently volatile pork belly primal is up $7.02 per hundred pounds this morning to boost the cutout. The WCB cash hogs are 36 cents higher this morning with a weighted average of $53.36. Weekly FI hog slaughter was estimated @ 2.589 million head last week. That was 97,000 higher than the same week in 2017. It is a good thing we have more plant capacity these days! CFTC on Friday showed spec traders in lean hog futures and options trimming their net long position by 2,815 contracts for the week of 11/6 to 29,515 contracts.

Dec 18 Hogs are at $56.050, up $0.250,

Feb 19 Hogs are at $61.325, up $1.825

Apr 19 Hogs are at $67.000, up $1.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures are trading 129 to 150 points lower at midday after getting off to a bearish start in the overnight trade. The US dollar is sharply higher, and the stock market is lower, neither supporting higher values for cotton. Total US cotton export commitments are now just 8.6% larger than this week last year. They are 66.2% of the updated USDA full year estimate, with the average pace at 51%. They just need to be shipped! The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed managed money trimming their net long position by 1,430 contracts as of 11/6 to 44,348 contracts. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 69.86 cents/lb, up 130 points from last week. There are currently 62,343 cert bales available for delivery vs. December futures, with the bulk of them in Memphis.

Dec 18 Cotton is at 76.64, down 145 points,

Mar 19 Cotton is at 78.5, down 136 points

May 19 Cotton is at 79.79, down 146 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 80.910, down 154 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com