AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 1-2 cents higher on Thursday since ending the Wednesday session with fractional gains. Wednesday morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production in the week that ended on June 15 up another 11,000 barrels per day. Weekly production of 1.064 million bpd was the largest since mid- February. Ethanol stocks shrunk 527,000 barrels to 21.647 million barrels in that week, with the Midwest the only region seen increasing. Export sales estimates ahead of this morning's report are showing 0.7 to 1 MMT in old crop sales and 150,000 to 400,000 MT in new crop sales. That comes following last week's report that showed 936,440 MT in 17/18 sales.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading steady to a penny lower at the moment. They closed Wednesday with most contracts steady to fractionally mixed. Front Month soy meal was down $1.30/ton, with soybean oil up 52 points. Wet weather across the Plains and trade concerns continue to weigh on the market, with buyers a little hesitant. Analysts are expecting today's Export Sales report to show old crop soybean sales at 300,000 to 600,000 MT, with new crop seen at 100,000 to 400,000 MT. Soy meal is estimated at 50,000 to 300,000 MT in sales, as 0-30,000 MT are seen for soy oil. China sold 77,782 MT of 2013 soybeans from state reserves in an auction on Wednesday, totaling 25.4% of the offered amount. Nearly 6.8 MMT of soybean and soymeal shipments in Brazil were affected by the country’s recent trucker strike according to Brazil’s National Ag Confederation. They estimated around 60 ships were affected.

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 7 cents higher this morning. They settled with 3 to 5 3/4 cent gains in the KC and MPLS contracts on Wednesday, with CBT 8 to 10 1/2 cents higher. Precipitation throughout parts of the Southern Plains may keep some harvesters out of the field for a couple days. The average trade estimate ahead of Thursday morning's USDA Export Sales report is for all wheat new crop sales at 250,000 to 500,000 MT. That would be within range of last week's total. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimates 41 MMT of grains for export in the 17/18 MY (through the end of June), with 38.6 MMT shipped so far. That total includes 16.8 MMT wheat, down 2.6% from last year.

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished with 20 to 80 cent gains in the front months on Wednesday, with a few back months lower. Feeder cattle futures were slightly higher, with nearby Aug down 20 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 7 cents from the previous day on June 18 at $141.41. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower again on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.41 to $218.29, with Select boxes $1.25 lower at $201.05. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was shown at 357,000 head through Wednesday by the USDA. That is 5,000 head above last week and the same time last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction sold 1,469 of the total 2,125 head offered at an average price of $110. A Reuters survey shows expectations ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (released at 2:00 p.m. CDT) are for May marketing to be up 5.1% from last year at 2.051 million head.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures posted sharp losses on Wednesday, with most contracts $1.775 to $2.575. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.85 to $84.05 on June 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.88 in the Wednesday PM report, up 17 cents. The loin, butt, and ham primal cuts were reported lower. The national base carcass price was down 66 cents on Wednesday afternoon, averaging $82.47. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.306 million head so far this week. That is down 33,000 head from last week on lower Monday slaughter but up 8,000 head from a year ago.

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 3 to 42 cents lower in the front months this morning, with Dec 18 points higher. They saw mixed trade at Wednesday’s close. July was down 11 points, with back months 36 to 54 points higher. Crude oil was up 84 cents/barrel, with the US dollar index up 103 points. The weekly Export sales report will be released this morning. The Cotlook A index was down 190 points from day prior at 96.95 cents/lb on June 19. The weekly AWP is currently at 82.99 cents/lb for this week, and will be updated on Thursday. China sold 9,200 MT of cotton from state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 30.76% of the amount offered.


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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